What I've Been Feeling When I See AI News These Days
It’s fascinating and a little scary how the semiconductor cycle and AI investment move in complete lockstep. I used to wonder how this was any different from the IT bubble, but seeing actual revenue coming in now makes me think it’s different from back then.
That said, it’s also unclear what an individual can do by jumping in here... In the end, the most realistic thing seems to be figuring out how to connect it to your own work.
8 answers
Agreed—semiconductors and AI are inseparable now. NVIDIA's earnings have essentially become an IT economic indicator.
It's true they're posting revenue, but isn't most of that revenue just them buying from each other? It's a structure where money invested by Big Tech flows right back into Big Tech revenue, so when the cycle turns, that'll really be something to watch.
Got a source? I get why it feels scary, but I'm curious what specifically you're looking at that makes you feel that way.
I feel similarly. That said, I see the question of what an individual can do a bit differently—these days, the people who attach even one AI tool to their work definitely pull ahead. Our team also added document summarization and translation automation, and with just that, overtime got cut in half. There’s no need for a grand investment; the most realistic approach is simply to attach it to the programs you use every day.
People were saying "this time is different" back in 2000 too lol. Even right before the dot-com bubble burst, everyone was saying this time there would be revenue. Is it different now? Who knows. I'm still not convinced.
I really agree that, in the end, the answer is to invest in your own work. I used to just watch what other people were buying, and I got nothing out of it. But once I started by automating my own tasks, that was what paid off most for me.
A bit off-topic, but that sense of 'being scared' actually seems healthy. Among people who are just mindlessly excited, the ones who can see the risk are ultimately the ones who don't end up ruined.
It's scary, admittedly. But the fact that it's tied to the semiconductor cycle ultimately means, conversely, that if semiconductors die, AI will shake along with them. If you're only looking at one side, it seems like a risky structure.