Midterm Election

An election held midway through a presidential term. The U.S. federal midterm elections are the most representative example, serving as a check on the ruling party and a bellwether for the next presid

Midterm Election

Overview

Midterm election (중간 선거, 中間選擧; midterm election) is a general term for elections held at the midpoint of the term of a top-level election such as a presidential election. The most representative case is the U.S. federal midterm elections, in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate, and many governors and state legislators are elected simultaneously on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November of the second year of the president's term. Midterm elections have the character of a midterm evaluation of the incumbent president and ruling party, and the ruling party generally tends to lose seats, so they are interpreted as a bellwether for the next presidential election.

Main Content

Definition and Scope

In a broad sense, midterm elections refer to all supplementary elections held midway through a term, but in a narrow sense they mean regular federal- and state-level midterm elections of the U.S. type. Under Article I of the U.S. Constitution and the Seventeenth Amendment, Representatives serve two-year terms, Senators six-year terms, and the President a four-year term, so two years after a presidential election, all House members and one-third of the Senate necessarily complete their terms. Because of this structural characteristic, in the United States presidential elections and midterm elections alternate at two-year intervals, shaping the political calendar.

Structure of U.S. Midterm Elections

House of Representatives: All 435 districts hold re-elections. Because seats are apportioned by population, all members are replaced every two years.
Senate: Usually 33 to 34 of the 100 seats are up for election. Terms are six years, so about one-third is replaced at each midterm election.
Governors: Elections are usually held in 36 of the 50 states. Governors serve four-year terms (two years in some states).
State legislatures and others: In most states, all state house members and some state senators are elected together, and state court judges, education board members, attorneys general, etc. are also elected depending on the locality.
Ballot measures: Direct votes on policy issues such as state constitutional amendments, cannabis legalization, and abortion rights are often held at the same time.

Turnout and Political Implications

Turnout in midterm elections is generally significantly lower than in presidential elections. The 2018 midterm elections recorded turnout of about 50%, the highest since 1914, but in 2022 it fell back to the mid-40% range. Because turnout is lower, the influence of highly motivated voters—especially strongly partisan voters and older people—is relatively greater.

Historically, the ruling party has shown a pattern of losing an average of 20 to 30 House seats in midterm elections. This reflects a desire to check the president and a "balancing" tendency, and midterm elections effectively take on the character of a confidence vote on the president. There are exceptions, however: in 2002, amid the security crisis after the September 11 attacks, President George W. Bush produced the unusual result of the Republican Party actually gaining seats.

Major Issues

The key issues in midterm elections change by era. In recent years, the economy (inflation, prices, jobs), immigration and border control, abortion rights, gun regulation, climate and energy policy, health insurance, and debates over school curricula have emerged as major agenda items. In addition, election institutions themselves—such as redistricting (gerrymandering), debates over voter registration and voting access, and mail-voting rules—are increasingly becoming issues. The party that wins a majority in the midterm elections gains the power to set the legislative agenda, organize committees, review the budget, and initiate impeachment, greatly strengthening its ability to check the executive branch.

Similar Systems in Other Countries

Korea does not institutionally have U.S.-style midterm elections, but the nationwide simultaneous local elections held in the middle of a presidential term (such as in 2018 and 2022) functionally have the character of a similar midterm evaluation. In addition, re-elections and by-elections for the National Assembly are sometimes interpreted as a de facto midterm judgment on the ruling forces. In the United Kingdom, even under fixed-term parliaments, by-elections function as an interim indicator of public opinion; France holds National Assembly elections immediately after presidential elections, so the midterm-election character is weak, and instead it checks the government through votes of no confidence and dissolution of parliament. In Japan, elections for half of the House of Councillors are held every three years, giving them the character of a midterm evaluation.

Recent Trends

In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, the Republican Party retook the House majority (222 seats), but the large "red wave" that had been expected did not materialize, and the Democratic Party actually gained one Senate seat to maintain its majority status at 51 to 49. Increased participation by young and women voters after the abortion-rights ruling (Dobbs v. Jackson) was analyzed as a major variable.

With the 2024 presidential election and general elections, the Republican Party took control of both the executive branch and both chambers of Congress; accordingly, the next midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, are expected to take on the character of a de facto confidence vote on the Trump administration. Observers believe that, with all House seats, 33 Senate seats, and many governorships up for election at the same time, whether checks and balances can be restored will be the key. In addition, institutional issues such as the expansion of early voting and mail voting, political advertising using artificial intelligence and the spread of disinformation, redistricting litigation, and legislation to verify voter eligibility have become increasingly acute in 2024–2025. In Korea as well, ahead of the 2026 local elections, the term "midterm election" is increasingly used in the media as an expression describing a midterm evaluation of public opinion.