Second Half of the Year

A document covering the economic and social practice of dividing a year into the first and second halves, its meaning, major issues, and trends.

Second Half of the Year

Overview

The second half of the year (하반기) refers to the period from July 1 to December 31 when a year is divided into two halves. It is an important temporal unit that serves as a basis for annual planning and performance evaluation in various fields, including corporate fiscal years, government budget execution, educational curricula, and sports leagues. Particularly in the economic and business sectors, strategies for the second half are formulated based on first-half performance, and it is noted as a period when consumer and investment sentiment concentrates.

Main Content

Second Half in Economics and Business

Corporate Performance and Outlook: Most companies disclose their performance semi-annually, and second-half results are a key variable in achieving annual targets. Notably, the third quarter (July–September) is characterized by the summer off-season and the Chuseok holiday effect, while the fourth quarter (October–December) features increased year-end consumption and inventory adjustments.
Government Budget: Since the Korean government's fiscal year runs from January 1 to December 31, the second half involves reviewing first-half execution performance and deciding whether to compile a supplementary budget (추경). Additionally, the budget proposal for the following year is submitted to the National Assembly in September.
Consumption Patterns: The second half sees a concentration of major consumption seasons, such as the summer vacation period (July–August), Chuseok (September–October), and the year-end holiday season (December), leading to concentrated sales in the retail, tourism, and accommodation industries. Global events like Black Friday and Christmas also fall in the second half.

Second Half in Society and Culture

Education: Although the Korean school year starts in March and ends in February, the second half (July–December) includes major educational events such as summer vacation (July–August), the start of the second semester (September), the College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT, 수능) in November, and winter vacation (December–February). The CSAT is one of the biggest issues of the second half.
Sports: Major sports leagues such as professional baseball and professional football (K League) hold their postseason and championship deciders in the second half. International competitions, like the 2024 Paris Olympics (July–August), are also often held in the second half.
Culture and Arts: The second half concentrates year-end award season for films and dramas (November–December), the peak season for musicals and concerts, and various cultural festivals (Busan International Film Festival in October, G-STAR in November, etc.).

Second Half in Politics and Administration

State Audit: The Korean National Assembly conducts an annual state audit (국정감사) from September to October, which is a key political event in the second half.
Elections: Presidential elections (March) and local elections (June) are usually held in the first half, as are National Assembly elections (April). However, by-elections are often held in the second half.
Budget Deliberation: In November and December, the National Assembly deliberates and finalizes the budget bill for the following year.

Latest Trends

Major Changes in the Second Half of 2024–2025

Economic Outlook: In the second half of 2024, expectations of global interest rate cuts and the recovery of the semiconductor industry emerged as key variables. The Bank of Korea froze the base rate at 3.25% in October 2024, but a rate cut is anticipated in the second half of 2025. Additionally, changes in trade policy following the U.S. presidential election (November 2024) are expected to affect exports in the second half.
Consumer Trends: In the second half of 2024, a polarization phenomenon was prominent, with 'value-for-money' consumption and 'flex' consumption coexisting. In particular, 'gashimbi' (price-to-psychological satisfaction) consumption expanded, especially among the MZ generation, leading to a surge in usage of secondhand trading platforms (Karrot Market, Bungaejangter) and discount coupon apps (Coupang, Gmarket).
Corporate Strategies: Large corporations are focusing on new product launches in the second half (iPhone 16 series in September, Galaxy Z Fold 6 in July) and year-end promotions. Products and services incorporating AI (artificial intelligence) technology have become a key keyword for new products in the second half.
Policy Changes: In the second half of 2024, the government announced the 'Dynamic Economy Roadmap' (September) and strengthened tax support for advanced industries such as semiconductors and batteries. Additionally, changes in education policy related to the expansion of medical school quotas (2025 academic year regular and rolling admissions) are expected in the second half of 2025.
International Affairs: In the second half of 2024, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, the Middle East conflict (Israel-Hamas), and the U.S.-China hegemony competition affected global supply chains and energy prices, increasing uncertainty for the Korean economy. In the second half of 2025, policy changes following the inauguration of the second Trump administration (January 2025) are expected to materialize.