Nuclear Missile

A missile that carries and delivers nuclear warheads, and is a key means of modern international security and nuclear deterrence strategy.

Nuclear Missile

Overview

A nuclear missile is a missile system that carries and delivers a nuclear warhead to a target point. Ballistic missiles and cruise missiles are representative, and depending on range and launch platform, they are classified as strategic or tactical assets. Since their development amid the US–Soviet confrontation of the Cold War, they have served as the physical foundation of nuclear deterrence theory, and even today they remain a key variable determining the strategic balance among great powers and the course of regional conflicts.

Main Content

Definition and Classification

Nuclear missiles are largely divided into ballistic missiles (BM) and cruise missiles (CM). Ballistic missiles are rocket-propelled, trace a trajectory outside the atmosphere, and then strike the target with a reentry vehicle, whereas cruise missiles fly at low altitude within the atmosphere to evade radar detection. By range, they are classified as short-range (SRBM, ~1,000 km), medium-range (MRBM, 1,000–3,000 km), intermediate-range (IRBM, 3,000–5,500 km), and intercontinental (ICBM, over 5,500 km). Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are the core of a covert second-strike capability.

Nuclear Triad

Strategic nuclear forces are usually composed of three legs.

  • Ground-launched ICBMs: Minuteman III (US), Yars (Russia), Dongfeng-41 (China), etc. They are deployed in silos and on mobile launchers.
  • SLBMs: Ohio-class and Columbia-class (US), Borei-class (Russia), Jin-class (China), etc., based on submarines. Their survivability is the highest.
  • Strategic bombers: B-2 and B-21 (US), Tu-160 (Russia), H-6K (China), etc., operate nuclear-armed cruise missiles.

The triad makes it possible to maintain retaliatory capability even if one leg is neutralized by a first strike, thereby establishing mutually assured destruction (MAD).

Technological Development

They have evolved from early single warheads to multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs), and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). MIRVs load multiple warheads on a single missile to make interception difficult, and HGVs have the potential to neutralize existing missile defense (MD) systems with speeds above Mach 5 and irregular trajectories. In addition, as the time to detect launch indications has shortened from tens of minutes to a few minutes, the risk of false alarms and the launch-on-warning dilemma have grown.

Deterrence Theory and Control

The core of deterrence theory is that the reason nuclear missiles exist is not to be used but to prevent use. The institutionalization of this idea is a series of arms control regimes, including the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the 1972 SALT I and ABM Treaty, the 1987 INF Treaty, and the 2010 New START. However, following the 2002 withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and the 2019 collapse of the INF Treaty, Russia suspended implementation of New START in 2023, and the Cold War-era control structure has effectively entered a phase of dismantlement.

Major Possessor States

The official nuclear-weapon states under the NPT are the five countries of the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France, while India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea are unofficial possessors. The United States and Russia possess about 90% of the world's nuclear warheads, and China is expected to increase its warheads to more than 1,000 by 2030.

Recent Developments

The nuclear missile situation in 2024–2025 can be summarized along two axes: an 'arms control vacuum' and 'technological competition.'

First, the end of New START. With expiration approaching in February 2026 and virtually no follow-up negotiations, the likelihood has grown that the world will enter the first period in which caps on US and Russian strategic nuclear weapons disappear.

Second, competition in intermediate-range and hypersonic missiles. In November 2024, Russia used its new IRBM 'Oreshnik' in combat against Dnipro, Ukraine, and the United States deployed the LRHW 'Dark Eagle,' with a range of about 2,775 km. China is responding with hypersonic glide vehicles and a large-scale expansion of silos.

Third, North Korea's high-angle launches. In October 2024, North Korea test-launched the new ICBM 'Hwasong-19' at a high angle, showing off advances in solid-fuel and multiple-warhead technology, and it continues testing strategic assets in 2025.

Fourth, the military turn in the Iran nuclear issue. In June 2025, US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities led to assessments that Iran's nuclear weapons capability had temporarily receded, but its uranium enrichment capability was not completely eliminated, leaving concerns about renewed proliferation.

Fifth, expansion of missile defense (MD). The United States is pursuing the Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) and the 'Golden Dome' concept, and in response, Russia and China are deepening an interaction in which they enhance interception-evasion capabilities with HGVs and multiple warheads.

As a result, nuclear missiles are moving from an era of 'quantity limits' to an era of 'qualitative competition,' and the prevailing assessment is that the risk of false alarms and failure to control escalation is at its highest level since the Cold War.

Related Topics

  • [[Nuclear weapon]]
  • [[International security]]
  • [[Arms control]]
  • [[Intercontinental ballistic missile]]
  • [[North Korean nuclear issue]]
  • [[Missile defense system]]