Trump, Iran
Overview
The relationship between Donald Trump and the Islamic Republic of Iran has largely unfolded around conflict over the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). In 2018, the first year of his first term, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear deal and launched a "Maximum Pressure" strategy, and in 2020 he eliminated Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, marking the peak of military confrontation. After returning to power in 2025, he went on to directly strike Iranian nuclear facilities in coordination with Israel—an unprecedented development—establishing himself as the biggest variable in Middle East order.
Key Details
Background: JCPOA and Trump's Rise
In July 2015, the United States (Obama administration), the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China reached an agreement with Iran on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In exchange for limiting uranium enrichment and accepting IAEA inspections, Iran obtained the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions. However, Trump, who won the 2016 presidential election, called the agreement "the worst deal in history" and took issue with the fact that it did not address missile development or support for regional proxy forces.
First Term: Withdrawal and Maximum Pressure (2018–2021)
- May 2018: Trump announced a unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA and gradually restored sanctions blocking Iranian crude oil exports.
- 2019: Iran began exceeding enrichment limits, and tensions escalated in the Persian Gulf with tanker attacks, the seizure of a British tanker, and the downing of a U.S. military drone.
- January 3, 2020: Qasem Soleimani was killed in a U.S. military drone strike in Baghdad. Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at the U.S. military base at Ain al-Asad in Iraq.
- 2020–2021: Iran raised its uranium enrichment level to 60 percent and reduced cooperation with IAEA inspections. Trump ended his term after failing to win reelection.
The Biden Era and Trump's Return to Power
The Biden administration attempted to restore the JCPOA but failed, and Iran continued its nuclear development. Trump, who won the 2024 presidential election, declared "maximum pressure" again upon taking office in January 2025. In February of the same year, through National Security Presidential Memorandum 2 (NSPM-2), he stated he would reduce Iran's crude oil exports to virtually zero, and strengthened strategic coordination with Israel.
The 2025 Israel-Iran War and U.S. Airstrikes
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a large-scale preemptive attack targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military leadership. Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones, and the war continued for more than ten days. Then, on June 21–22, U.S. forces deployed B-2 stealth bombers and submarine-launched Tomahawks to directly strike the nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This was recorded as the first instance of the United States conducting airstrikes on the Iranian mainland. Trump claimed legitimacy, calling it "strength for peace," and Iran fired retaliatory missiles at U.S. military bases in the region. On June 24, Trump announced a ceasefire, halting the escalation for the time being, but controversy continued over the actual state of the nuclear program and whether negotiations would resume.
Latest Developments
As of 2024–2025, the key terms in Trump-Iran relations are "the realization of the military option" and "conditional negotiation." Even after the airstrikes, Trump maintains the position that "if Iran gives up nuclear weapons, we can talk," while at the same time pursuing a dual strategy that leaves open the possibility of further strikes. Inside Iran, the argument for nuclear armament has gained strength, while debate over the regime's stability has grown amid economic hardship and tightened controls. International oil prices repeatedly surged and plunged in response to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and energy-importing countries, including South Korea, moved to diversify their supply chains. In addition, after the JCPOA was effectively declared dead, the security cooperation framework between Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Israel has been realigned, while China and Russia are expanding strategic cooperation with Iran, creating cracks in the U.S. pressure strategy. In the second half of 2025, the possibility of a "small deal" exchanging the resumption of nuclear inspections for partial sanctions relief has been discussed, but the outlook is uncertain due to a lack of trust between the two sides.
Related Topics
- [[Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA)]]
- [[Qasem Soleimani]]
- [[Maximum Pressure Strategy]]
- [[2025 Israel-Iran War]]
- [[Donald Trump]]
- [[Middle East Situation]]