Trump: Xi Jinping Relationship

The course of U.S.–China conflict and negotiation since 2017 as seen through the personal and diplomatic relationship between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Trump–Xi Jinping Relationship

Overview

The relationship between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has been a key variable shaping the entire U.S.–China relationship since 2017. The two leaders initially displayed 'friendly summit diplomacy' emphasizing personal rapport, but conflict began in earnest with the trade war in 2018. After Trump returned to power in 2025, all-around competition and limited 'truces' over tariffs, rare earths, and semiconductors have continued in repeated cycles.

Main Content

1. Early Friendly Summit Diplomacy (2017–2018)

In April 2017, President Trump invited President Xi to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida for their first summit. In November of the same year, Trump made a state visit to Beijing and was welcomed at the Great Hall of the People, where Xi presented the 'Chinese Dream' and a large-scale plan to purchase U.S. goods. Trump at the time called Xi a 'great leader' and expected China's cooperation on the North Korean denuclearization issue.

2. Trade War and Phase One Agreement (2018–2020)

In March 2018, the United States imposed tariffs on China under Section 301 of the Trade Act, beginning the trade war. Tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese products were subsequently raised in stages, and China also retaliated with tariffs and the card of rare earth export controls. A temporary truce was reached at the 2019 Osaka G20 summit, and on January 15, 2020, the 'Phase One trade agreement' was signed in Washington. China promised to expand purchases of U.S. agricultural products and protect intellectual property, but structural issues such as subsidies and reform of state-owned enterprises were deferred to follow-up negotiations.

3. COVID-19 and Deterioration of Relations (2020–2021)

Amid the spread of COVID-19 in 2020, Trump used the term 'Chinese virus' and raised questions of responsibility, while China characterized this as a political offensive. Conflicts expanded across diplomacy and security, including consulate closures, sanctions on media and technology companies, and responses to the Hong Kong National Security Law.

4. The Biden Administration (2021–2024)

The Biden administration largely maintained tariffs on China while strengthening export controls on advanced technologies such as semiconductors and AI. U.S.–China summits were held at the 2022 Bali G20 and the 2023 San Francisco APEC, attempting to restore communication channels, but the Taiwan issue and competition for technological hegemony remained structural conflicts. During this period, Xi Jinping succeeded in a third term and consolidated a long-term rule system.

5. Return to Power in 2025 and the Tariff War

Trump, inaugurated on January 20, 2025, imposed additional tariffs on China citing China's responsibility for fentanyl, and in April announced 'reciprocal tariffs,' sharply raising tariff rates on China. China responded with export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, and the United States strengthened export restrictions on semiconductor design and equipment and AI chips. Trade between the two countries contracted, and global supply chains came under pressure to restructure.

6. 2025 Truce Agreement and Summit

Working-level negotiations continued in Geneva in May 2025, London in June, and Stockholm in August, and at a summit held on the sidelines of APEC in Gyeongju, South Korea, in late October, Trump and Xi agreed to a one-year trade truce. The United States partially reduced fentanyl-related tariffs, while China agreed to a suspension of rare earth export controls and the resumption of purchases of U.S. soybeans; the issue of TikTok stake divestiture was also discussed. However, this is assessed as an extension of 'managed competition' rather than a comprehensive settlement.

Latest Trends (2024–2025)

Weaponization of tariffs: Reciprocal and sectoral tariffs are constantly used as negotiating cards, reducing predictability.
Rare earth and critical mineral controls: China is using its export licensing system as a means of supply chain pressure, while the United States is accelerating the construction of alternative supply chains with allies.
Semiconductor and AI regulation: Regulations surrounding advanced chips, equipment, and access to AI models have become a core axis of U.S.–China technological decoupling.
Taiwan and South China Sea: Military tensions persist, and summit diplomacy and military dialogue channels are being operated in parallel.
Personalization of summit diplomacy: Because it has become more about direct deal-making between leaders than working-level channels, concerns are being raised about the durability of agreements.