Typhoon Track
Overview
A typhoon track refers to the trajectory a typhoon travels from formation until dissipation. It is determined by factors such as surrounding pressure systems, the Coriolis force caused by Earth's rotation, and sea surface temperature, and it has a significant impact on the Korean Peninsula and the East Asian region. Accurate track prediction plays a key role in reducing casualties and property damage.
Main Contents
Factors Determining Typhoon Tracks
Typhoons generally move with atmospheric flow, which is called steering flow. The arrangement of high- and low-pressure systems around the typhoon governs its direction. In particular, they often move westward along the edge of the North Pacific High, then turn northeast due to changes in the high's strength. The Coriolis force (전향력) from Earth's rotation is a major factor bending typhoons northward. Interactions between typhoons, such as the Fujiwhara effect, can also affect the track. Higher sea surface temperatures lead to stronger typhoon development, and the degree of development can alter the path.
Representative Typhoon Track Types
Typhoon tracks are broadly classified into three types. The first, the "westward-moving type," is where a typhoon forms near the Philippines and moves west toward southern China or Vietnam. The second, the "northwestward-moving type," passes through Japan's Okinawa or Kyushu toward the Korean Peninsula or mainland Japan, and is the representative path affecting South Korea. The third, the "recurving type," moves north along the eastern coast of China and then turns east at mid-latitudes, carried by westerlies. Typhoons that land on the Korean Peninsula especially often occur in the middle of the northwestward-moving or recurving types. Historically, Typhoon Maemi in 2003, Typhoon Chaba in 2016, and Typhoon Hinnamnor in 2022 are notable cases that caused severe damage to the Korean Peninsula.
Typhoon Track Prediction Technology
Typhoon track prediction is performed by combining numerical weather prediction models and statistical methods. Weather agencies around the world provide multiple scenarios using ensemble forecasts, and the Korea Meteorological Administration has been introducing artificial intelligence (AI) models to improve typhoon forecast accuracy. Prediction errors have been greatly reduced compared to the past, but limitations remain when rapid intensification or interactions occur. Despite advances in prediction technology, typhoon tracks are inherently nonlinear, so a probabilistic approach is important.
Latest Trends
Between 2024 and 2025, the use of AI-based prediction models in typhoon track forecasting has become more prominent. Deep learning models such as Google DeepMind's GraphCast and Huawei's Pangu-Weather have attracted attention in meteorology by showing faster and more accurate track predictions than existing physics-based models. The KMA has also been piloting an AI forecast system since 2024, using it to provide uncertainty information for typhoon tracks. Studies have also reported that due to climate change, typhoon tracks are gradually expanding to higher latitudes and typhoons are moving more slowly, tending to remain longer over specific areas. In 2024, record sea surface temperatures increased the frequency of rapid intensification, making track prediction more difficult. In 2025, the fusion of satellite technology and AI is expected to further extend the lead time of typhoon track prediction.
Related Topics
- [[Typhoon]]
- [[Meteorology]]
- [[Climate change]]
- [[Numerical weather prediction]]
- [[North Pacific High]]